COURSE UNIT TITLE

: DECISION THEORY

Description of Individual Course Units

Course Unit Code Course Unit Title Type Of Course D U L ECTS
QMT 4224 DECISION THEORY ELECTIVE 3 0 0 5

Offered By

BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION

Level of Course Unit

First Cycle Programmes (Bachelor's Degree)

Course Coordinator

PROFESSOR DOCTOR SABRI ERDEM

Offered to

BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION

Course Objective

This course aims at developing the students knowledge of decision making process, basic concepts of decision theory and the basics of decision making approaches.

Learning Outcomes of the Course Unit

1   Demonstrate understanding of the fundamentals of decision theory,
2   Describe utility theory,
3   Demonstrate understanding of the basic concepts of decision making,
4   Build basic decision making applications under uncertainty models,
5   Apply multi-criteria decision making.

Mode of Delivery

Face -to- Face

Prerequisites and Co-requisites

None

Recomended Optional Programme Components

None

Course Contents

Week Subject Description
1 Decision Making: Behavioral Approach Call for Selecting Group Cases and Application Reports
2 Decision Process and Decision Theory Assigning Cases to Groups
3 Utility Theory Assigning problems as HW
4 Decision Making Under Uncertainty and Risk
5 Decision Trees and Bayesian Approach
6 Computer Applications Introducing Decision Tree Software Review Session
7 Goal Programming Assigning problems as HW
8 Multi Criteria Decision Making: Basic Techniques Introducing Topsis, Electre, Promethe
9 AHP Assigning problems as HW
10 ANP
11 Computer Applications Ahp, Anp, Topsis, Electre
12 Application Presentations

Recomended or Required Reading

1. Text Books:
Decision Theory, Principles and Applications, Giovanni Parmigiani,Lurdes Yoshiko Tani Inoue, John Wiley and Sons, 2009
Decision by Objectives, Forman and Selly, World Scientific, 2002
Statistics for Business and Economics by Paul NEWBOLD, William L. Carlson and Betty Thorne, 7th Edt., 2010, Prentice-Hall,

2. Recommended Materials
Introduction to Management Science, Hillier and Hillier, 2010, Pearson Education.
Introduction to Operations Research, by Hillier & Hillier, Lieberman, McGraw-Hill 2000 and later
Introduction to Management Science 7th Ed. By Bernard W. Taylor III, Pearson Education
Operations Research an Introduction, 9th Edition by Hamdy A. TAHA
Sayısal Yöntemler: Yönetsel Yaklaşım by Ş. GÜMÜŞOĞLU, H. TÜTEK, 2008-2010, Beta Yayıncılık

3. Lecture Slides:
Complementary of the text book.

4. Software:
Spreadsheet Software with TreeView add-in. Expert Choice. Super Decision.
5. Calculator:

Planned Learning Activities and Teaching Methods

1. Lectures
Class lecture is highly interactive and format is direct. The instructor prompts students for response to questions posed and solicits their thoughts on issues discussed. Lectures will focus on the transfer of basic optimization concepts and techniques where comprehension is substantially enhanced by additional elaboration and illustration. The emphasis is on business applications rather than rigorous mathematics.
2. Review Sessions and Class Discussions
Review sessions will be handled by the instructor each week in the last session of a lecture. In-class assignments and homework assignments are the basis of problems to be solved in these sessions. Individual participation by students in classroom discussion is strongly encouraged.
3. Computer Applications
In the laboratory component, Spreadsheet Software and a particular solver package will be employed to perform analyses of problem domain. Instruction on the use of this software as it relates to decision making problems will be provided in class and in the book.

Assessment Methods

SORTING NUMBER SHORT CODE LONG CODE FORMULA
1 MT Midterm
2 TP TermProject
3 PRS Presentation
4 FCG FINAL COURSE GRADE MT * 0.20 +TP * 0.60 + PRS * 0.20


*** Resit Exam is Not Administered in Institutions Where Resit is not Applicable.

Further Notes About Assessment Methods

1. Home works (20%), Lab Assignments (20%) and Participation

Homework problems will be assigned frequently. It is imperative that you work and understand these problems to successfully complete the course. It is strongly recommended the students to work all homework problems as a study tool for the exams.

By completing homework assignments, each student will enhance analytical skills, as well as, improve competency utilizing Spreadsheet Software and a appropriate package for decision analysis. By actively participating in class discussions and in-class assignments, each student will improve communication and analytical skills through learning decision theory concepts and business applications.

2. Case Analysis (30%) and Application (30%)

Case studies and applications will offer an excellent opportunity for students to perform operational analysis and develop solutions to realistic situations. For the real world applications, a group including three students should be formed. Any deviation from this target number requires approval of the instructor. The cases will be assigned to each group by the instructor by the beginning of the semester. Topics consist of the case analysis of a decision making problems found in managing a business, government, or non-profit organization, whether product or service oriented.

Case and reports will be submitted to the instructor prior to the end of the midterm and final week as both a handout and a digital file named as course, departmentname and groupname (for example, DecisionTheory_Business_GroupOne). Each application report should be typed by using Microsoft Word and/or Excel and comprises the following: (i) a title page with the case title and full names of the authors, (ii) the main body of the report starting on the second page, and (iii) the report appendix.

Assessment Criteria

1. Grade for Student Participation will depend on (i) your class attendance, (ii) the quality of the answers you provide to questions posed by the instructor during class, and (iii) the general contribution you make to the creation of a positive learning environment.

2. A good attendance record may bring the grade up one level, for grades on the boundary between two grade levels.

3. The case analysis and real world applications require a cooperative effort. It is the responsibility of the team to assure that each team member has contributed approximately equally to the group work. Cases will be graded by the instructor and by the team members. Each member of the group will be asked at the end of the semester to evaluate his or her own contribution, and those of other team members. A peer evaluation form will be supplied during the last week of class.

4. Case reports and real world application reports will be evaluated for such factors as apparent understanding of the topic, originality of treatment and discussion, accuracy of results, comprehensiveness of the report s content and depth of the analysis, clarity and mechanics of presentation such as organization, format, punctuation, grammar, and quality of exhibits and charts.

Language of Instruction

English

Course Policies and Rules

1. Attending at least 70 percent of lectures is mandatory.
2. Plagiarism of any type will result in disciplinary action.
3. Absence will not be considered an excuse for submitting homework assignments late.
4. Delayed case reports will suffer grade decay equivalent to one letter grade per day late.
5. Students are required to have their own calculator for this course. It will not be allowed to share a calculator during exams. Cellular phones cannot be used as a calculator during an exam.

Contact Details for the Lecturer(s)

sabri.erdem@deu.edu.tr

Office Hours

TBA

Work Placement(s)

None

Workload Calculation

Activities Number Time (hours) Total Work Load (hours)
Lectures 10 3 30
Tutorials 2 3 6
Preparations before/after weekly lectures 8 1 8
Preparation for midterm exam 0 0 0
Preparation for final exam 0 0 0
Preparing presentations 2 5 10
Preparing assignments 2 20 40
Preparing assignments 6 5 30
Preparation for quiz etc. 0 0 0
Final 0 0 0
Midterm 0 0 0
Quiz etc. 0 0 0
TOTAL WORKLOAD (hours) 124

Contribution of Learning Outcomes to Programme Outcomes

PO/LOPO.1PO.2PO.3PO.4PO.5PO.6PO.7PO.8PO.9PO.10PO.11PO.12PO.13PO.14PO.15
LO.111214223
LO.21111322
LO.311224223
LO.411235153422
LO.51153515323