COURSE UNIT TITLE

: BUSINESS FORECASTING MODULE

Description of Individual Course Units

Course Unit Code Course Unit Title Type Of Course D U L ECTS
MBA 8041 BUSINESS FORECASTING MODULE ELECTIVE 2 0 0 6

Offered By

DISTANCE LEARNING MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION NON-THESIS

Level of Course Unit

Second Cycle Programmes (Master's Degree)

Course Coordinator

ASISTANT PROFESSOR AYSUN KAPUÇUGIL IKIZ

Offered to

DISTANCE LEARNING MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION NON-THESIS

Course Objective

The course aims to provide students the core and advanced issues of generating and implementing business forecasts. Focus is on modern statistical methods that are widely used to analyze and generate business forecasts.

Learning Outcomes of the Course Unit

1   Have a knowledge understanding of the use of basic and advanced forecasting and time series techniques.
2   Have a knowledge understanding of the significance of data analysis and model selection criteria.
3   Demonstrate a good understanding of moving average and exponential smoothing forecasting techniques, the Box-Jenkins method of forecasting and forecasting with regression analysis.
4   Demonstrate their skills and knowledge to analyze real economic, business and financial cross-sectional and time series data by using the appropriate techniques and software with a high level of confidence.
5   Perform a complete business forecast and develop solutions to realistic cases
6   Have experience writing a report using the language of modern statistics to communicate the forecasting results and explain the managerial implication.

Mode of Delivery

Face -to- Face

Prerequisites and Co-requisites

None

Recomended Optional Programme Components

None

Course Contents

Week Subject Description
1 Introduction to Forecasting
2 Exploring Data Patterns and an Introduction to Forecasting Techniques Assignment cases to the teams
3 Moving Averages and Smoothing Methods Selecting Implementation Project Topics
4 Time Series and Their Components
5 Case Analysis - Computer Applications Submission of Case Analysis Report
6 Midterm
7 Simple Regression
8 Multiple Regression Analysis
9 Regression with Time Series Data
10 The Box-Jenkins (ARIMA)-Methodology
11 Judgmental Forecasting and Forecast Adjustments
12 Case Analysis - Computer Applications Submission of Case Analysis Report
13 Implementation Project Presentations Submission of Project Report Peer Evaluations
14 Final

Recomended or Required Reading

1. Text Books:
Business Forecasting, John E. Hanke and Dean W. Wichern, 9th Edition Pearson Education, 2009.
Business Forecasting. J. Holton Wilson and Barry Keating, 6th Edition, Irwin/McGraw-Hill, 2009.
Forecasting Methods and Applications. Spyros Makridais, Steven C. Wheelwright and Rob. J. Hyndman, 3th Edition or later. John Wiley and Sons Inc.
2. Software:
Minitab
SPSS ® (Statistical Package for Social Sciences)
3. Calculator:
Students will need a scientific calculator for various calculation problems in and out of class, and during exams.

Planned Learning Activities and Teaching Methods

The course consists of lectures, class discussions, computer applications, assignments, case analysis and implementation projects.

Assessment Methods

SORTING NUMBER SHORT CODE LONG CODE FORMULA
1 MTE MIDTERM EXAM
2 STT TERM WORK (SEMESTER)
3 FIN FINAL EXAM
4 FCG FINAL COURSE GRADE MTE * 0.20 + STT * 0.30 + FIN* 0.50
5 RST RESIT
6 FCGR FINAL COURSE GRADE (RESIT) MTE * 0.20 + STT * 0.30 + RST* 0.50


Further Notes About Assessment Methods

None

Assessment Criteria

1. Lectures will focus on the transfer of basic and advanced forecasting techniques where comprehension is substantially enhanced by additional elaboration and illustration.

2. Exams will measure the ability to identify and apply the appropriate statistic and/or method to forecasting problems in real business environment. Each exam will cover course materials and include problems like those assigned for homework, questions on lecture materials, and additional items covered in class meetings.

3. Homework problems will be assigned frequently. It is imperative that a student works and understands these problems to successfully complete the course. It is strongly recommended the students to work all homework problems as a study tool for the exams. By completing homework assignments, each student will enhance analytical skills, as well as, improve competency utilizing a data analysis add-in tool and/or a statistical package for data entry and analysis. By actively participating in class discussions and in-class assignments, each student will improve communication and analytical skills through learning forecasting concepts and business applications.

4. Case Analysis will offer an excellent opportunity for students to perform statistical analysis and develop solutions to real business forecasting problems.

5. Students are required to complete an Implementation Project which allows them to apply the forecasting skills they have developed to a topic of personal or professional interest, like analysis of a cross-sectional data or time series from real business environment.

6. For the case analysis and project works, a team including two students should be formed. Any deviation from this target number requires approval of the instructor. The cases will be assigned to each team by the instructor, the project topics will be determined by the students, which is subject to approval of the instructor.

7. By working with a group, students will improve teamwork, analytical, and communication skills through identifying and applying statistical analysis to the real world business problems. Case reports and project reports will enable students improve their competency using the language of statistics to communicate the results.

8. The case analysis and project works requires a cooperative effort. It is the responsibility of the team to assure that each team member has contributed approximately equally to the group work. Cases will be graded by the instructor and by the team members. Each member of the group will be asked at the end of the semester to evaluate his or her own contribution, and those of other team members. A peer evaluation form will be supplied during the last week of class.

9. The reports will be evaluated for such factors as apparent understanding of the topic, originality of treatment and discussion, accuracy of results, comprehensiveness of the report s content and depth of the analysis, clarity and mechanics of presentation such as organization, format, punctuation, grammar, and quality of exhibits and charts.

10. Grade for Student Participation will depend on (i) class attendance, (ii) the quality of answers the student provides to questions posed by the instructor during class, and (iii) the general contribution the student makes to the creation of a positive learning environment.

11. A good attendance record may bring the grade up one level, for grades on the boundary between two grade levels

Language of Instruction

English

Course Policies and Rules

Course Policies and Rules
1. It is obligatory to attend at least 70% of the classes.
2. Violations of Plagiarism of any kind will result in disciplinary steps being taken.
3. Absence will not be considered an excuse for submitting homework assignments late.
4. Delayed case and project reports will suffer grade decay equivalent to one letter grade per day late.

Contact Details for the Lecturer(s)

aysun.kapucugil@deu.edu.tr

Office Hours

To be announced.

Work Placement(s)

None

Workload Calculation

Activities Number Time (hours) Total Work Load (hours)
Lectures 12 3 36
Preparations before/after weekly lectures 12 2 24
Preparation for midterm exam 1 20 20
Preparation for final exam 1 25 25
Preparing assignments 8 5 40
Preparing presentations 1 5 5
Final 1 1,5 2
Midterm 1 1,5 2
TOTAL WORKLOAD (hours) 154

Contribution of Learning Outcomes to Programme Outcomes

PO/LOPO.1PO.2PO.3PO.4PO.5PO.6PO.7PO.8
LO.155
LO.255
LO.355
LO.445555
LO.545555
LO.64555555