COURSE UNIT TITLE

: FINANCIAL FORECASTING

DEGREE PROGRAMMES

Description of Individual Course Units

Course Unit Code Course Unit Title Type Of Course D U L ECTS
IBS 4394 FINANCIAL FORECASTING ELECTIVE 3 0 0 4

Offered By

International Business and Trade

Level of Course Unit

First Cycle Programmes (Bachelor's Degree)

Course Coordinator

PROFESSOR GÜLÜZAR KURT GÜMÜŞ

Offered to

International Business and Trade
BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION

Course Objective

The objective of this course is to introduce students to the fundamentals of financial forecasting techniques, and methods in a time series analysis sense in order to identify data patterns and forecast business drivers through applied time series modeling techniques
In addition, this course provides a background to learn how to interpret basic time series analysis results and time series analysis software outputs to model and forecast the financial market data through market models in order to gain insight about the financial data patterns.

Learning Outcomes of the Course Unit

1   Understand fundamentals and application areas of time series analysis techniques
2   Be able to analyze time series returns and volatility and construct basic policy implications on the returns/volatility
3   Interpret the time series analysis software result of basic models
4   Understand the concept of market risk and quantify them through value-at-risk applications
5   Use applied statistics methods to understand the dynamics of financial price movements.

Mode of Delivery

Face -to- Face

Prerequisites and Co-requisites

FIN 2002 - BUSINESS FINANCE

Recomended Optional Programme Components

None

Course Contents

Week Subject Description
1 Introduction to Forecasting: Applications, Methods, and Software
2 Fundamental Factors for Successfull Forecasting
3 Forecasting With Regression Models
4 Modelling and Forecasting Trend
5 Modelling and Forecasting Seasonality
6 Modelling and Forecasting Returns
7 Modelling and Forecasting Returns
8 Modelling and Forecasting Volatility
9 Modelling and Forecasting Volatility
10 Forecasting Evaluation - In Sample Analysis
11 Forecasting Evaluation - Out of Sample Analysis
12 Technical Analysis

Recomended or Required Reading

1. Course materials are drawn from a range of textbooks and journal articles.

Planned Learning Activities and Teaching Methods

1. Lectures
2. Presentations

Assessment Methods

SORTING NUMBER SHORT CODE LONG CODE FORMULA
1 MT Midterm
2 PSL ProblemSolving
3 FN Final
4 FCG FINAL COURSE GRADE MT * 0.40 + PSL * 0.10 +FN * 0.50
5 RST RESIT
6 FCGR FINAL COURSE GRADE (RESIT) MT * 0.40 + PSL * 0.10 + RST * 0.50


*** Resit Exam is Not Administered in Institutions Where Resit is not Applicable.

Further Notes About Assessment Methods

None

Assessment Criteria

1. The learner will show understanding the basic concepts, theories, principles, and practices of financial time series modeling and forecasting.
2. The learner will model and forecast time series based through basic return and volatility models.
3. The learner will interpret the software outputs of basic time series analysis.

Language of Instruction

English

Course Policies and Rules

1. Attending at least 70 % of lectures is mandatory.
2. Plagiarism of any type will result in disciplinary action.
3. All assignments should be submitted on time. Otherwise will not be accepted.

Contact Details for the Lecturer(s)

To be announced.

Office Hours

To be announced.

Work Placement(s)

None

Workload Calculation

Activities Number Time (hours) Total Work Load (hours)
Lectures 12 3 36
Tutorials 0 0 0
Preparation before/After Weekly Lectures 12 2 24
Preparation for Midterm Exam 1 10 10
Preparation for Final Exam 1 15 15
Preparation for Quiz etc. 0 0 0
Preparing Individual Assignments (Term Projects etc.) 2 2 4
Preparing Group Assignments ( Term Projects etc.) 1 6 6
Preparing Presentations 0 0 0
Other : 0 0 0
Final 1 1,5 2
Midterm 1 1,5 2
Quiz etc 0 0 0
TOTAL WORKLOAD (hours) 99

Contribution of Learning Outcomes to Programme Outcomes

PO/LOPO.1PO.2PO.3PO.4PO.5PO.6PO.7PO.8PO.9PO.10PO.11PO.12PO.13PO.14PO.15
LO.14354
LO.24354
LO.355
LO.44354
LO.54354

CONTACT INFORMATION
Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Cumhuriyet Bulvarı No: 144 35210 Alsancak / İZMİR
Phone: +90(232) 412 12 12 - Fax: +90 (232) 464 81 35

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